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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
15 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 40%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PN Sproulcaught and bowled · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nahida Akter | 17 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 70.83 |
| Abbi Aitkenbowled · Marufa Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marufa Akter | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Kathryn Brycebowled · Nahida Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahida Akter | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
| Sarah Brycecaught and bowled · Jannatul Ferdus 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jannatul Ferdus | 42 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 72.41 |
| Ailsa Listerrun out · Nigar Sultana, Marufa Akter · Rabeya Khan 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nigar Sultana, Marufa Akter | 18 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 62.07 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Rabeya Khan |
| 5 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Katherine Fraserbowled · Jannatul Ferdus 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jannatul Ferdus | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 47.06 |
|---|
| Priyanaz Chatterjistumped · Nigar Sultana · Nahida Akter 7 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Nahida Akter | 61 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 96.83 |
|---|
| Rachel Slaternot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 61* | 73 | 5 | 0 | 83.56 |
|---|
| Chloe Abelcaught · Ritu Moni · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ritu Moni · b Nahida Akter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Abtaha Maqsoodnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 4 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Jannatul Ferdus0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 3.30 | 5 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Abbi Aitken, 2.1) · 2-23 (Kathryn Bryce, 5.5) · 3-31 (PN Sproul, 7.5) · 4-78 (Ailsa Lister, 16.2) · 5-90 (Megan McColl, 20.5) · 6-102 (Sarah Bryce, 25.2) · 7-110 (Katherine Fraser, 27.1) · 8-225 (Priyanaz Chatterji, 47.5) · 9-225 (Chloe Abel, 48.0)
Recorded target: 277 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 23/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 32/3 |
| 9 | 13 | 45/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 56/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 64/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 70/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 72/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 78/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 80/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 85/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 86/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 88/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 90/5 |
| 22 | 3 | 93/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 96/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 99/5 |
| 25 | 2 | 101/5 |
| 26 | 1 | 102/6 |
| 27 | 8 | 110/6 |
| 28 | 2 | 112/7 |
| 29 | 3 | 115/7 |
| 30 | 3 | 118/7 |
| 31 | 2 | 120/7 |
| 32 | 6 | 126/7 |
| 33 | 5 | 131/7 |
| 34 | 9 | 140/7 |
| 35 | 8 | 148/7 |
| 36 | 6 | 154/7 |
| 37 | 7 | 161/7 |
| 38 | 8 | 169/7 |
| 39 | 3 | 172/7 |
| 40 | 9 | 181/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 186/7 |
| 42 | 8 | 194/7 |
| 43 | 4 | 198/7 |
| 44 | 5 | 203/7 |
| 45 | 3 | 206/7 |
| 46 | 12 | 218/7 |
| 47 | 4 | 222/7 |
| 48 | 3 | 225/9 |
| 49 | 10 | 235/9 |
| 50 | 7 | 242/9 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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