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Ireland tour of Namibia · 2026/27 · Men
24 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 45%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Balbirnierun out · MB Kruger, Zane Green · M Heingo2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · MB Kruger, Zane Green | 22 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 64.71 |
 Paul Stirlinglbw · Jack Brassell8 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Jack Brassell | 77 | 71 | 8 | 3 | 108.45 |
| Cade Carmichaelbowled · M Heingo 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Heingo | 12 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
 Harry Tectorbowled · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
Namibia's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 68%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 60.00 |
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · JJ Smit · Jack Brassell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Jack Brassell | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Curtis Camphercaught · Zane Green · Jack Brassell 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Zane Green · b Jack Brassell | 45 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 George Dockrellcaught · Zane Green · Jack Brassell5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Zane Green · b Jack Brassell | 48 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Andrew McBrinerun out · Gerhard Erasmus, Zane Green · Gerhard Erasmus1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gerhard Erasmus, Zane Green | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Gavin Hoeycaught · Jack Brassell · Gerhard Erasmus 0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Jack Brassell · b Gerhard Erasmus | 31 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 147.62 |
|---|
| Jai Moondracaught and bowled · Gerhard Erasmus 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Gerhard Erasmus | 20 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 105.26 |
|---|
| BD McDonoughnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 18 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Smit0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 6.78 | 7 | 0 |
| Ruben Trumpelmann1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 6.30 | 4 | 0 |
| M Heingo0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 4 | 5.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.71 | 2 | 0 |
1-54 (Andrew Balbirnie, 11.0) · 2-98 (Cade Carmichael, 18.5) · 3-119 (Harry Tector, 21.5) · 4-120 (Lorcan Tucker, 23.0) · 5-125 (Paul Stirling, 24.1) · 6-210 (Curtis Campher, 37.5) · 7-229 (George Dockrell, 40.0) · 8-231 (Andrew McBrine, 40.5) · 9-289 (Jai Moondra, 47.1) · 10-290 (Gavin Hoey, 47.3)
Recorded target: 322 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 45/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 48/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 54/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 64/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 69/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 73/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 81/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 83/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 84/1 |
| 18 | 7 | 91/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 98/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 103/2 |
| 21 | 11 | 114/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 119/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 120/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 125/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 126/5 |
| 26 | 9 | 135/5 |
| 27 | 7 | 142/5 |
| 28 | 10 | 152/5 |
| 29 | 9 | 161/5 |
| 30 | 7 | 168/5 |
| 31 | 1 | 169/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 173/5 |
| 33 | 9 | 182/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 186/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 192/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 197/5 |
| 37 | 8 | 205/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 210/6 |
| 39 | 10 | 220/6 |
| 40 | 9 | 229/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 232/8 |
| 42 | 4 | 236/8 |
| 43 | 7 | 243/8 |
| 44 | 5 | 248/8 |
| 45 | 14 | 262/8 |
| 46 | 17 | 279/8 |
| 47 | 9 | 288/8 |
| 48 | 2 | 290/10 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
