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Ireland tour of Namibia · 2026/27 · Men
24 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 45%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Paul Stirling · Curtis Campher 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Curtis Campher | 22 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 70.97 |
| Louren Steenkampcaught · Lorcan Tucker · BD McDonough 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b BD McDonough | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught · Jai Moondra · Gavin Hoey 6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jai Moondra · b Gavin Hoey | 76 | 90 | 6 | 2 | 84.44 |
| Gerhard Erasmusnot out 14 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 156* | 125 | 14 | 4 | 124.80 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Paul Stirling · Gavin Hoey 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Gavin Hoey | 15 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 68.18 |
Namibia's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 68%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Paul Stirling · b Gavin Hoey |
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 42.86 |
| A Busing-Volschenkcaught · J Neill · Jai Moondra 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · J Neill · b Jai Moondra | 30 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| JJ Smitnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Moondra1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 63 | 1 | 6.30 | 7 | 0 |
| BD McDonough0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 71 | 1 | 7.89 | 2 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 5.13 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 74 | 1 | 7.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Gavin Hoey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 3 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
 George Dockrell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-4 (Louren Steenkamp, 1.1) · 2-49 (Michael van Lingen, 10.3) · 3-166 (Jan Frylinck, 33.0) · 4-211 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 40.2) · 5-225 (Zane Green, 42.4) · 6-317 (A Busing-Volschenk, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 17/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 31/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 45/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 49/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 56/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 62/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 67/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 70/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 74/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 77/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 80/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 89/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 92/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 94/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 100/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 105/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 108/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 113/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 118/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 125/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 127/2 |
| 29 | 2 | 129/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 134/2 |
| 31 | 9 | 143/2 |
| 32 | 13 | 156/2 |
| 33 | 10 | 166/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 171/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 175/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 180/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 185/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 193/3 |
| 39 | 10 | 203/3 |
| 40 | 7 | 210/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 215/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 223/4 |
| 43 | 5 | 228/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 235/5 |
| 45 | 7 | 242/5 |
| 46 | 16 | 258/5 |
| 47 | 19 | 277/5 |
| 48 | 16 | 293/5 |
| 49 | 19 | 312/5 |
| 50 | 9 | 321/6 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
