South KoreaversusIndonesia

South Korea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, South Korea rate stronger than Indonesia (1,338 vs 1,276 on our results rating)
• South Korea are playing at home in South Korea
• In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 2 and South Korea won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Korea started on 60%; South Korea batted first.

South Korea's chances ranged from 6% to 72% during the match (Indonesia: 29% to 94%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 14.6: Fazil Muhammad to DJ Hawoe, DJ Hawoe out. South Korea up from 33% to 59%.
2. 2nd inns 18.6: S Maduranga to IKEG Artawan, four by IKEG Artawan. Indonesia up from 47% to 76%.
3. 2nd inns 19.5: Fazil Muhammad to IKEG Artawan, 2 runs to IKEG Artawan. Indonesia up from 74% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.