**Dubai International Cricket Stadium**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2026 · Women

PakistanversusHong Kong

7 Sept 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 72 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs143/8 Hong Kong19.0 overs71/10 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

58%Pakistan42%Hong Kong

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,512 vs 1,456 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 57%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (Hong Kong: 0% to 42%).

Biggest swings

2.5: Iqra Sahar to Muneeba Ali, Muneeba Ali out. Hong Kong up from 29% to 36%.
4.1: KY Chan to Gull Feroza, Gull Feroza out. Hong Kong up from 32% to 39%.
13.5: Joyleen Kaur to Eyman Fatima, Eyman Fatima out. Hong Kong up from 28% to 35%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan143/8 Hong Kong71/10

Innings 1

Pakistan

143/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muneeba Alibowled · Iqra Sahar 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Iqra Sahar	6	7	1	0	85.71
Shawaal Zulfiqarcaught and bowled · Joyleen Kaur 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Joyleen Kaur	47	35	6	0	134.29
Gull Ferozalbw · Kary Chan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kary Chan	3	4	0	0	75.00
Ayesha Zafarcaught · M Bibi · Joyleen Kaur 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Bibi · b Joyleen Kaur	26	19	4	0	136.84
Sadaf Shamascaught · MBA Lamplough · Joyleen Kaur 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · MBA Lamplough · b Joyleen Kaur	5	8	0	0	62.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iqra Sahar0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	4
M Wai Siu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	2
Kary Chan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	1
MBA Lamplough0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	0	5.00	0
Joyleen Kaur0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	4	4.75	3
M Bibi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0
Ruchitha Venkatesh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	5	13/0
3	11	24/1
4	9	33/1
5	9	42/2
6	8	50/2
7	8	58/2
8	8	66/2
9	11	77/2
10	5	82/3
11	10	92/3
12	2	94/4
13	4	98/4
14	4	102/6
15	4	106/6
16	4	110/6
17	6	116/6
18	12	128/7
19	2	130/8
20	13	143/8

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