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Photo: Kathy Lachina
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South Africa tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
8 Nov 2025 · ODI
Iqbal Stadium, Faisalabad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Pakistan: 39% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamanbowled · Nandre Burger0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nandre Burger | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Donavon Ferreira · Bjorn Fortuin 11 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Donavon Ferreira · b Bjorn Fortuin | 77 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 110.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamrun out · Quinton de Kock, Corbin Bosch · Bjorn Fortuin5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Quinton de Kock, Corbin Bosch | 27 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 84.38 |
 Mohammad Rizwannot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 32* | 45 | 3 |
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 1 |
| 71.11 |
| Salman Ali Aghanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandre Burger1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 5.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.1 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 5.51 | 0 | 0 |
| Donavon Ferreira0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Fakhar Zaman, 0.2) · 2-65 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 10.2) · 3-130 (Saim Ayub, 23.4)
Recorded target: 144 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 29/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 36/1 |
| 8 | 14 | 50/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 65/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 70/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 73/2 |
| 14 | 12 | 85/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 90/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 92/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 95/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 101/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 105/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 111/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 113/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 120/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 124/2 |
| 24 | 8 | 132/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 140/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 144/3 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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