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South Africa tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
8 Nov 2025 · ODI
Iqbal Stadium, Faisalabad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Pakistan: 39% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LG Pretoriuscaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Salman Ali Agha 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Salman Ali Agha | 39 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 86.67 |
 Quinton de Kocklbw · Mohammad Nawaz6 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Nawaz | 53 | 70 | 6 | 1 | 75.71 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Shaheen Afridi · Salman Ali Agha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Salman Ali Agha | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Abrar Ahmed | 16 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 45.71 |
| Rubin Hermannbowled · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes |
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Abrar Ahmed |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Donavon Ferreirabowled · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschbowled · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuinlbw · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Nawaz | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Nqaba Peterbowled · Shaheen Afridi 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 16 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 51.61 |
|---|
| Nandre Burgernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidibowled · Shaheen Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.5 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 3.72 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 4.29 | 0 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 3.44 | 0 | 0 |
1-72 (LG Pretorius, 14.2) · 2-87 (Tony de Zorzi, 18.5) · 3-106 (Quinton de Kock, 24.3) · 4-109 (Rubin Hermann, 25.1) · 5-117 (Donavon Ferreira, 27.3) · 6-117 (Corbin Bosch, 27.4) · 7-122 (Bjorn Fortuin, 29.0) · 8-130 (Matthew Breetzke, 33.2) · 9-143 (Nqaba Peter, 37.4) · 10-143 (Lungi Ngidi, 37.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 12 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 43/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 47/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 49/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 53/0 |
| 13 | 9 | 62/0 |
| 14 | 9 | 71/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 72/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 17 | 7 | 85/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 86/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 87/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 89/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 92/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 95/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 98/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 102/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 109/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 110/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 113/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 118/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 122/7 |
| 30 | 0 | 122/7 |
| 31 | 1 | 123/7 |
| 32 | 4 | 127/7 |
| 33 | 2 | 129/7 |
| 34 | 1 | 130/8 |
| 35 | 5 | 135/8 |
| 36 | 4 | 139/8 |
| 37 | 3 | 142/8 |
| 38 | 1 | 143/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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