NepalversusQatar

13 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 32 runs

Nepal20.0 overs210/7 Qatar20.0 overs178/9 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

63%Nepal37%Qatar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Qatar (1,562 vs 1,438 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Qatar won 1 and Nepal won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 61%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Qatar: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2.5: Amir Farooq to K Bhurtel, K Bhurtel out. Qatar up from 33% to 42%.
7.5: H Rathod to RK Paudel, RK Paudel out. Qatar up from 23% to 28%.
9.6: Musawar Shah to Kushal Malla, six by Kushal Malla. Nepal up from 72% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal210/7 Qatar178/9

Innings 2

Qatar

178/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Qatar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kamran Khanbowled · Gulsan Jha 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Gulsan Jha	18	13	1	1	138.46
Saqlain Arshadcaught · Bibek Yadav · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Bibek Yadav · b Lalit Rajbanshi	1	3	0	0	33.33
Mohammad Ahnaffcaught · Rohit Kumar · Dipendra Singh Airee 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rohit Kumar · b Dipendra Singh Airee	23	18	4	0	127.78
Muhammad Tanveercaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Abinash Bohara 6 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Abinash Bohara	63	33	6	4	190.91
Mohammed Irshadbowled · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Gulsan Jha	2	4	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sompal Kami0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	1
Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	1
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	1
Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	2	12.00	2
Kushal Malla0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	2
Abinash Bohara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	3	8/1
3	23	31/1
4	6	37/1
5	4	41/2
6	7	48/2
7	14	62/3
8	5	67/3
9	10	77/4
10	8	85/4
11	14	99/4
12	7	106/5
13	10	116/5
14	10	126/5
15	5	131/6
16	7	138/7
17	13	151/7
18	10	161/8
19	7	168/8
20	10	178/9

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