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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
10 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 45%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 0% to 71% during the match (Nepal: 30% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · S Sugaya-Slater3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming · b S Sugaya-Slater | 21 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Ibrahim Takahashi · S Sugaya-Slater 1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Takahashi · b S Sugaya-Slater | 38 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 180.95 |
 Rohit Kumarlbw · S Ravichandran1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Ravichandran | 18 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 94.74 |
| Sundeep Joracaught · B Ito-Davis · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Ito-Davis · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
| caught and bowled · b D Suzuki |
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireenot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 14 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhanot out1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 28* | 20 | 1 | 2 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinze0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| S Sugaya-Slater0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Esam Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| D Suzuki0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-36 (Kushal Bhurtel, 5.0) · 2-63 (Aasif Sheikh, 7.2) · 3-76 (Sundeep Jora, 10.0) · 4-90 (Kushal Malla, 12.0) · 5-90 (Rohit Kumar, 12.2)
Recorded target: 132 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 45/1 |
| 7 | 17 | 62/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 69/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 71/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 82/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 90/4 |
| 13 | 1 | 91/5 |
| 14 | 9 | 100/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 105/5 |
| 16 | 11 | 116/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 120/5 |
| 18 | 12 | 132/5 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
