Hong KongversusQatar

4 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 83 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs164/3 Qatar17.2 overs81/10 Kolej Tuanku Jaafar Cricket Oval, Mantin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

79%Hong Kong21%Qatar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Qatar (1,579 vs 1,357 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 77%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Qatar: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Shahreeennawab to M Hill, NT Miles out. Qatar up from 22% to 28%.
2.5: Shahreeennawab to Y Daswani, four by Y Daswani. Hong Kong up from 74% to 77%.
6.1: G Candiru to M Hill, six by M Hill. Hong Kong up from 76% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong164/3 Qatar81/10

Innings 2

Qatar

81/1017.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Qatar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Fatima Mukadamcaught · Kary Chan · Ruchitha Venkatesh 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kary Chan · b Ruchitha Venkatesh	8	15	1	0	53.33
SK Ranalbw · M Wai Siu 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b M Wai Siu	1	4	0	0	25.00
S Krishetacaught and bowled · Kary Chan 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Kary Chan	20	22	3	0	90.91
Sargam Patelrun out · Natasha Miles · Ruchitha Venkatesh 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Natasha Miles	18	21	2	0	85.71
Shahreeennawabbowled · Ruchitha Venkatesh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ruchitha Venkatesh	13	20	0	0	65.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Iqra Sahar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	0	5.00	0	0
M Wai Siu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	1	0
Kary Chan1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	3	4.25	7	0
Ruchitha Venkatesh0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	6	0
Joyleen Kaur0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	15	0	7.50	0	1
M Bibi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.2	0	2	2	1.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/1
3	5	10/1
4	6	16/1
5	8	24/1
6	2	26/1
7	6	32/2
8	5	37/3
9	8	45/3
10	4	49/3
11	5	54/3
12	6	60/3
13	10	70/3
14	6	76/5
15	3	79/6
16	1	80/7
17	0	80/9
18	1	81/10

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