NorwayversusFrance

5 Apr 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Norway won by 10 runs

Norway20.0 overs148/9 France18.5 overs138/10 Santarem Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Norway more likely to win

66%Norway34%France

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than France (1,540 vs 1,432 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Norway started on 65%; Norway batted first.

Norway’s chance of winning (%) · France is the rest

Norway's chances ranged from 22% to 83% during the match (France: 17% to 78%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.2: M Shahbaz Butt to Zada Sher, Zada Sher out. Norway up from 38% to 65%.
2nd inns 13.5: D Abeyrathna to Usman Khan, Usman Khan out. Norway up from 59% to 83%.
2nd inns 18.2: Vinay Ravi to Rahimgul Naseri, Rahimgul Naseri out. Norway up from 27% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Norway148/9 France138/10

Innings 1

Norway

148/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Norway batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Khizer Ahmedrun out · L Canessane, Mohammad Khan Rafah · Dawood Ahmadzai 1 fours · 1 sixes	run out · L Canessane, Mohammad Khan Rafah	24	19	1	1	126.32
D Abeyrathnabowled · Zada Sher 1 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Zada Sher	38	38	1	3	100.00
Chaudhary Akrambowled · Usman Khan 3 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Usman Khan	41	34	3	1	120.59
Ibrahim Rahimicaught · Dawood Ahmadzai · Usman Khan 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Dawood Ahmadzai · b Usman Khan	34	15	3	3	226.67
Faisal Razacaught · Dawood Ahmadzai · Mohammad Khan Rafah 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dawood Ahmadzai

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Zaheer Zahiri0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	2
Rahimgul Naseri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	0
Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	0	6.00	0
Zada Sher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	1	12.33	0
Usman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	4	5.25	0
Mohammad Khan Rafah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	3	6.67	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	4	16/0
3	11	27/0
4	9	36/0
5	2	38/0
6	7	45/0
7	2	47/1
8	1	48/1
9	12	60/1
10	5	65/1
11	5	70/1
12	13	83/2
13	5	88/2
14	19	107/2
15	9	116/2
16	8	124/2
17	9	133/3
18	11	144/4
19	2	146/7
20	2	148/9

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