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Netherlands Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
9 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 35%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Babette de Leedecaught · Sibona Jimmy · HJ Thomas 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sibona Jimmy · b HJ Thomas | 22 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 169.23 |
| P Molkenboercaught · Geua Tom · Vicky Araa 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Geua Tom · b Vicky Araa | 75 | 137 | 3 | 0 | 54.74 |
| Annemijn van Beugebowled · HJ Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b HJ Thomas | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 5.00 |
| Robine Rijkecaught · Isabel Toua · Sibona Jimmy 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isabel Toua · b Sibona Jimmy | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 113.33 |
| Iris Zwillingbowled · Isabel Toua 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Isabel Toua | 28 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 59.57 |
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Netherlands: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b HJ Thomas |
| 0 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Frederique Overdijkcaught · Sibona Jimmy · Tanya Ruma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sibona Jimmy · b Tanya Ruma | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 43.48 |
|---|
| Caroline de Langerun out · Naoani Vare, Brenda Tau · Vicky Araa 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Naoani Vare, Brenda Tau | 9 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 47.37 |
|---|
| Eva Lynchbowled · Tanya Ruma 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tanya Ruma | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Hannah Landheernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Silver Siegersnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 14 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geua Tom0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Sibona Jimmy1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
| HJ Thomas1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 3 | 3.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Vicky Araa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 4.09 | 0 | 0 |
| Isabel Toua1 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 3.40 | 6 | 1 |
| D Lohia0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanya Ruma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 3.40 | 2 | 0 |
1-32 (Babette de Leede, 5.0) · 2-39 (Annemijn van Beuge, 10.3) · 3-66 (Robine Rijke, 15.5) · 4-130 (Iris Zwilling, 31.2) · 5-131 (CH van Koolwijk, 32.5) · 6-158 (Frederique Overdijk, 38.5) · 7-177 (Caroline de Lange, 44.0) · 8-189 (Eva Lynch, 47.0) · 9-189 (P Molkenboer, 47.1)
Recorded target: 192 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 33/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 37/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 37/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 40/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 11 | 53/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 58/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 63/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 72/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 76/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 82/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 84/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 88/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 95/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 100/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 108/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 112/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 117/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 118/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 122/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 126/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 130/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 130/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 131/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 138/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 143/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 147/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 152/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 156/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 160/6 |
| 40 | 4 | 164/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 167/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 170/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 171/6 |
| 44 | 6 | 177/7 |
| 45 | 7 | 184/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 187/7 |
| 47 | 2 | 189/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 192/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.