BahrainversusBhutan

6 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 66 runs

Bahrain20.0 overs139/5 Bhutan18.4 overs73/10 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

84%Bahrain16%Bhutan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Bhutan (1,603 vs 1,427 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 6 and Bhutan won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 84%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Bhutan is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 81% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 19%).

Biggest swings

4.6: Tashi Phuntsho to Asif Ali, Asif Ali out. Bhutan up from 13% to 16%.
2nd inns 2.3: Ali Dawood to Tenjin Rabgey, Tenjin Rabgey out. Bahrain up from 83% to 89%.
2nd inns 2.4: Ali Dawood to Tshering Tashi, Tshering Tashi out. Bahrain up from 89% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain139/5 Bhutan73/10

Innings 2

Bhutan

73/1018.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sonam Chophelbowled · Imran Khan (5) 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Imran Khan (5)	4	7	0	0	57.14
Tenjin Rabgeycaught and bowled · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Ali Dawood	1	9	0	0	11.11
Tshering Tashibowled · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ali Dawood	0	1	0	0	0.00
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjibowled · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ali Dawood	1	6	0	0	16.67
Namgang Chejaybowled · Asif Ali 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Asif Ali	26	31	2	1	83.87
Thinley Jamtsho

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ali Dawood1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	8	4	2.00	0
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	1	2.67	0
Abdul Majid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	0	3.67	0
Asif Javed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	0
Shujaat Rasool0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	0	7	2	1.91	1
Asif Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	24	3	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	4	5/0
3	0	5/2
4	3	8/3
5	1	9/4
6	2	11/4
7	6	17/5
8	2	19/5
9	5	24/5
10	4	28/5
11	9	37/5
12	5	42/5
13	2	44/5
14	9	53/6
15	2	55/7
16	3	58/8
17	1	59/8
18	12	71/9
19	2	73/10

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