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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A · 2026/27 · Men
6 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Bahrain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahrain started on 84%; Bahrain batted first.
Bahrain's chances ranged from 81% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 19%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asif Alicaught · Namgang Chejay · Tashi Phuntsho 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Namgang Chejay · b Tashi Phuntsho | 22 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 129.41 |
| P Kurupbowled · Gakul Ghalley 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gakul Ghalley | 16 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 94.12 |
| Fiaz Ahmedcaught · Thinley Jamtsho · Anand Mongar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Thinley Jamtsho · b Anand Mongar | 25 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Junaid Azizretired out · Karma Dorji 2 fours · 2 sixes | retired out | 45 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 128.57 |
| Imran Anwarcaught · Tashi Phuntsho · Karma Dorji 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tashi Phuntsho · b Karma Dorji | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| not out |
| 10* |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 142.86 |
| Ahmer Bin Nasirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashi Phuntsho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Gakul Ghalley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Karma Dorji0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 9.38 | 3 | 0 |
| Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Anand Mongar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Asif Ali, 5.0) · 2-38 (P Kurup, 5.4) · 3-103 (Fiaz Ahmed, 15.4) · 4-122 (Imran Anwar, 18.1) · 5-122 (Junaid Aziz, 18.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 43/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 51/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 58/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 64/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 68/2 |
| 12 | 11 | 79/2 |
| 13 | 10 | 89/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 95/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 101/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 108/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 115/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 121/3 |
| 19 | 13 | 134/5 |
| 20 | 5 | 139/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.