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Photo: Paramgoel
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
13 Feb 2026 · T20
Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 44%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 1% to 69% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 32% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmanot out 6 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 74* | 53 | 6 | 3 | 139.62 |
| Waseem Muhammadcaught · Navneet Dhaliwal · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Navneet Dhaliwal · b Kaleem Sana | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Alishan Sharafucaught · Nicholas Kirton · Saad Bin Zafar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Saad Bin Zafar | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
| MR Kumarcaught · Kaleem Sana · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Saad Bin Zafar | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| H Kaushikcaught · Nicholas Kirton · Saad Bin Zafar 1 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Saad Bin Zafar |
| 5 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 55.56 |
| Sohaib Khancaught · Nicholas Kirton · Jaskaran Singh 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Jaskaran Singh | 51 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 175.86 |
|---|
| Muhammad Arfannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 0 | 1 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaskaran Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 12.27 | 3 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ansh Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Dilpreet Bajwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Waseem Muhammad, 2.3) · 2-41 (Alishan Sharafu, 7.0) · 3-60 (MR Kumar, 10.3) · 4-66 (H Kaushik, 12.3) · 5-150 (Sohaib Khan, 19.3)
Recorded target: 151 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 17 | 39/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 50/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 59/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 61/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 65/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 68/4 |
| 14 | 14 | 82/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 88/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 95/4 |
| 17 | 17 | 112/4 |
| 18 | 13 | 125/4 |
| 19 | 18 | 143/4 |
| 20 | 8 | 151/5 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
