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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
13 Feb 2026 · T20
Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 44%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 1% to 69% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 32% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samracaught · Alishan Sharafu · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Junaid Siddique | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Dilpreet Bajwacaught · Waseem Muhammad · Junaid Siddique 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Junaid Siddique | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalrun out · Muhammad Arfan · Muhammad Jawadullah 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Muhammad Arfan | 34 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 121.43 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Aryansh Sharma · Muhammad Jawadullah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Muhammad Jawadullah | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · MR Kumar · Junaid Siddique 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · MR Kumar · b Junaid Siddique | 50 | 41 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 121.95 |
| Shreyas Movvacaught · Alishan Sharafu · Junaid Siddique 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Junaid Siddique | 21 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Jaskaran Singhnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Haider Ali · Junaid Siddique1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Haider Ali · b Junaid Siddique | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Dillon Heyligernot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 6* | 1 | 0 | 1 | 600.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haider Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 5 | 8.75 | 6 | 0 |
| Muhammad Arfan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 8.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Muhammad Jawadullah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Muhammad Farooq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| H Kaushik0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 2.0) · 2-19 (YS Samra, 3.1) · 3-38 (Nicholas Kirton, 5.1) · 4-96 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 13.0) · 5-129 (Harsh Thaker, 17.4) · 6-136 (Shreyas Movva, 19.1) · 7-143 (Saad Bin Zafar, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 28/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 38/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 39/3 |
| 7 | 12 | 51/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 57/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 63/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 71/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 81/3 |
| 12 | 11 | 92/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 96/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 100/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 106/4 |
| 16 | 13 | 119/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 127/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 131/5 |
| 19 | 5 | 136/5 |
| 20 | 14 | 150/7 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
