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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
11 Feb 2026 · T20
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 11%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 5% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Romario Shepherd4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Romario Shepherd | 30 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 214.29 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Rovman Powell · Roston Chase2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Roston Chase | 21 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Jacob Bethellbowled · Gudakesh Motie 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 33 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 143.48 |
| Tom Bantoncaught · Brandon King · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon King · b Gudakesh Motie | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| caught and bowled · b Gudakesh Motie |
| 17 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 121.43 |
 Sam Currannot out3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 43* | 30 | 3 | 2 | 143.33 |
|---|
 Will Jackslbw · Roston Chase0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Roston Chase | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Rovman Powell · Akeal Hosein0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Akeal Hosein | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Jofra Archerrun out · Jason Holder · Jason Holder1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jason Holder | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Liam Dawsonrun out · Jason Holder, Shamar Joseph · Shamar Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jason Holder, Shamar Joseph | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidcaught · Roston Chase · Shamar Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Shamar Joseph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Holder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 17.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 7.25 | 4 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-38 (Philip Salt, 3.2) · 2-74 (Jos Buttler, 6.4) · 3-85 (Tom Banton, 8.0) · 4-90 (Jacob Bethell, 9.3) · 5-131 (Harry Brook, 13.5) · 6-134 (Will Jacks, 14.4) · 7-141 (Jamie Overton, 16.0) · 8-151 (Jofra Archer, 17.2) · 9-161 (Liam Dawson, 18.3) · 10-166 (Adil Rashid, 19.0)
Recorded target: 197 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 24 | 31/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 44/1 |
| 5 | 14 | 58/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 67/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 76/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 85/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 88/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 93/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 99/4 |
| 12 | 11 | 110/4 |
| 13 | 13 | 123/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 131/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 135/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 141/7 |
| 17 | 9 | 150/7 |
| 18 | 10 | 160/8 |
| 19 | 6 | 166/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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