Mumbai IndiansversusUP Warriorz

7 Mar 2024 · T20

Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Mumbai Indians won by 42 runs

Mumbai Indians20.0 overs160/6 UP Warriorz20.0 overs118/9 Arun Jaitley Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mumbai Indians started on 56%; Mumbai Indians batted first.

Mumbai Indians’s chance of winning (%) · UP Warriorz is the rest

Mumbai Indians's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (UP Warriorz: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

1.3: AC Jayangani to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. UP Warriorz up from 40% to 51%.
2nd inns 1.5: S Ishaque to KP Navgire, KP Navgire out. Mumbai Indians up from 54% to 65%.
2nd inns 3.3: HK Matthews to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. Mumbai Indians up from 68% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Mumbai Indians chose to bat
Player of the match: Nat Sciver-Brunt
match referees: VR Nagre
reserve umpires: Abhijit Bhattacharya
tv umpires: N Janani
umpires: M Krishnadas, PG Pathak

Match history & source

On 7 Mar 2024, Mumbai Indians played UP Warriorz at Arun Jaitley Stadium. Recorded result: Mumbai Indians won by 42 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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