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Photo: Alexander T. Carroll, cropped by Blackcat
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
1 Nov 2025 · ODI
Wellington Regional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 23%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwayrun out · Jamie Overton · Jamie Overton 2 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Jamie Overton | 34 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 77.27 |
 Rachin Ravindrabowled · Sam Curran7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sam Curran | 46 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 124.32 |
 Will Youngcaught · Jos Buttler · Jamie Overton0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jamie Overton | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Jos Buttler · Sam Curran 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Sam Curran | 44 | 68 | 4 | 1 | 64.71 |
 |
England's chances ranged from 1% to 36% during the match (New Zealand: 64% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Brydon Carse |
| 10 |
| 22 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 45.45 |
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Jacob Bethell · Adil Rashid 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Adil Rashid | 13 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 65.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Harry Brook · Brydon Carse 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Brydon Carse | 27 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 93.10 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithbowled · Jamie Overton 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jamie Overton | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 24 | 2 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
 Blair Ticknernot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 20 | 2 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 12 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer2 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 5.30 | 6 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 2 |
 Jamie Overton1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Curran1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 1 | 46 | 2 | 5.31 | 6 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-78 (Devon Conway, 12.5) · 2-81 (Rachin Ravindra, 13.3) · 3-92 (Will Young, 14.4) · 4-113 (Tom Latham, 21.1) · 5-147 (Michael Bracewell, 29.1) · 6-188 (Mitchell Santner, 35.4) · 7-191 (Nathan Smith, 36.2) · 8-196 (Daryl Mitchell, 38.3)
Recorded target: 223 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 40/0 |
| 10 | 24 | 64/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 67/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 72/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 79/1 |
| 14 | 11 | 90/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 92/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 94/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 103/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 107/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 112/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 113/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 120/4 |
| 23 | 6 | 126/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 127/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 130/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 137/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 137/4 |
| 28 | 8 | 145/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 147/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 148/5 |
| 31 | 3 | 151/5 |
| 32 | 11 | 162/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 167/5 |
| 34 | 16 | 183/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 187/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 190/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 192/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 196/7 |
| 39 | 0 | 196/8 |
| 40 | 8 | 204/8 |
| 41 | 6 | 210/8 |
| 42 | 3 | 213/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 214/8 |
| 44 | 5 | 219/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 226/8 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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