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Pearl of Africa T20I Series · 2025 · Men
27 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 31%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 1% to 40% during the match (Kenya: 60% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Chilemanyalbw · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sachin Gill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sulaimon Runsewerun out · Rakep Patel · GM Muthui 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rakep Patel | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Isaac Danladirun out · Francis Mutua · Sachin Gill 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Francis Mutua | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| AE Iseselebowled · Sachin Gill 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sachin Gill | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
| Vincent Adewoyecaught · Sukhdeep Singh · GM Muthui 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b GM Muthui | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| bowled · b GM Muthui |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Mohameed Taiwocaught · GM Muthui · Rakep Patel 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · GM Muthui · b Rakep Patel | 26 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 78.79 |
|---|
| Sylvester Okpecaught · Rakep Patel · Francis Mutua 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rakep Patel · b Francis Mutua | 35 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 94.59 |
|---|
| Isaac Okpebowled · Francis Mutua 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Francis Mutua | 13 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 92.86 |
|---|
| AA Jimohnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Peter Ahonot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 12 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sachin Gill0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| GM Muthui0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Vraj Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Vishil Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rakep Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Francis Mutua0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 9.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-6 (S Chilemanya, 0.5) · 2-6 (Sulaimon Runsewe, 1.2) · 3-13 (AE Isesele, 2.1) · 4-22 (Vincent Adewoye, 4.0) · 5-22 (Isaac Danladi, 4.1) · 6-24 (David Ankrah, 5.4) · 7-61 (Mohameed Taiwo, 13.4) · 8-95 (Sylvester Okpe, 17.5) · 9-108 (Isaac Okpe, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 7 | 13/2 |
| 3 | 3 | 16/3 |
| 4 | 6 | 22/4 |
| 5 | 1 | 23/5 |
| 6 | 1 | 24/6 |
| 7 | 1 | 25/6 |
| 8 | 12 | 37/6 |
| 9 | 5 | 42/6 |
| 10 | 2 | 44/6 |
| 11 | 2 | 46/6 |
| 12 | 11 | 57/6 |
| 13 | 2 | 59/6 |
| 14 | 4 | 63/7 |
| 15 | 8 | 71/7 |
| 16 | 10 | 81/7 |
| 17 | 8 | 89/7 |
| 18 | 8 | 97/8 |
| 19 | 6 | 103/8 |
| 20 | 10 | 113/9 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishil Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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