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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
20 Apr 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 74%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassanbowled · Nathan Smith 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Smith | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Henry Nicholls · Jayden Lennox 10 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Henry Nicholls · b Jayden Lennox | 76 | 58 | 10 | 4 | 131.03 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Dean Foxcroft · William O’Rourke0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dean Foxcroft · b William O’Rourke | 8 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 72.73 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantoretired hurt · Jayden Lennox5 fours · 2 sixes | retired hurt | 50* | 71 | 5 | 2 | 70.42 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 80% during the match (Bangladesh: 20% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Dean Foxcroft · b Jayden Lennox |
| 7 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 63.64 |
 Tawhid Hridoynot out5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 30* | 31 | 5 | 0 | 96.77 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasannot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 25 | 1 | 0 | 32.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 6.57 | 2 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 5.86 | 3 | 0 |
 Blair Tickner0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Dean Foxcroft0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.3 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 4.73 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden Lennox2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 36 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Clarkson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Saif Hassan, 1.0) · 2-21 (Soumya Sarkar, 4.0) · 3-141 (Tanzid Hasan, 22.2) · 4-154 (Litton Das, 24.5)
Recorded target: 199 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 21/2 |
| 5 | 13 | 34/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 51/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 57/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 66/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 67/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 76/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 84/2 |
| 15 | 11 | 95/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 99/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 105/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 112/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 116/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 124/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 132/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 135/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 142/3 |
| 24 | 8 | 150/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 155/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 161/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 164/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 166/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 172/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 179/4 |
| 31 | 0 | 179/4 |
| 32 | 11 | 190/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 196/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 197/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 198/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 199/4 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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