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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Men
20 Apr 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 74%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Nichollslbw · Nahid Rana 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahid Rana | 13 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Nick Kellycaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Shariful Islam 14 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Shariful Islam | 83 | 102 | 14 | 0 | 81.37 |
 Will Youngcaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Nahid Rana0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Nahid Rana | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
 Tom Lathamcaught · Litton Das · Soumya Sarkar1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Soumya Sarkar | 14 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 80% during the match (Bangladesh: 20% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Litton Das · b Nahid Rana |
| 19 |
| 34 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 55.88 |
| Dean Foxcroftcaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Nahid Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Nahid Rana | 15 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Josh Clarksoncaught · Mehedi Hasan · Rishad Hossain 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Rishad Hossain | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 23 | 1 | 0 | 78.26 |
|---|
 Blair Ticknercaught · Afif Hossain · Shariful Islam2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Afif Hossain · b Shariful Islam | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
|---|
| Jayden Lennoxbowled · Nahid Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahid Rana | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkecaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Taskin Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Taskin Ahmed | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.4 | 1 | 46 | 1 | 4.76 | 0 | 1 |
 Shariful Islam1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.20 | 5 | 0 |
 Nahid Rana1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 3.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Henry Nicholls, 7.1) · 2-28 (Will Young, 9.1) · 3-52 (Tom Latham, 17.3) · 4-108 (Muhammad Abbas, 28.3) · 5-145 (Nick Kelly, 36.4) · 6-152 (Josh Clarkson, 37.5) · 7-164 (Dean Foxcroft, 42.1) · 8-182 (Blair Tickner, 44.5) · 9-183 (Jayden Lennox, 45.3) · 10-198 (William O’Rourke, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 28/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 28/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 31/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 41/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 46/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 49/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 56/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 66/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 73/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 81/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 25 | 12 | 97/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 105/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 107/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 108/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 109/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 116/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 122/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 124/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 129/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 135/4 |
| 36 | 9 | 144/4 |
| 37 | 2 | 146/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 153/6 |
| 39 | 3 | 156/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 158/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 161/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 164/6 |
| 43 | 11 | 175/7 |
| 44 | 3 | 178/7 |
| 45 | 5 | 183/8 |
| 46 | 1 | 184/9 |
| 47 | 9 | 193/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 196/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 198/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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