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Photo: NZDF
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Australia tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
1 Oct 2025 · T20
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 48%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Australia: 38% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 1 Oct 2025, New Zealand played Australia at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui. Recorded result: Australia won by 6 wickets.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.