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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
7 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 60%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lara Goodallcaught · Richa Ghosh · Amanjot Kaur 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richa Ghosh · b Amanjot Kaur | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Tazmin Britscaught · Jemimah Rodrigues · Amanjot Kaur 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jemimah Rodrigues · b Amanjot Kaur | 26 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 61.90 |
| Miané Smitbowled · Deepti Sharma 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 39 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 72.22 |
| Annerie Dercksenbowled · Amanjot Kaur 5 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Amanjot Kaur | 81 | 80 | 5 | 2 | 101.25 |
| Nondumiso Shangasecaught · Harleen Deol · Pratika Rawal 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harleen Deol · b Pratika Rawal | 36 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
India's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Shree Charani |
| 21 |
| 20 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 105.00 |
4 fours · 5 sixes | bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 67 | 43 | 4 | 5 | 155.81 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerknot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 22* | 13 | 2 | 1 | 169.23 |
|---|
| Suné Luusnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sneh Rana1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 7.57 | 4 | 0 |
| Amanjot Kaur0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 6.56 | 9 | 0 |
| Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 5.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Shuchi Upadhyay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 6.56 | 0 | 0 |
| 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 2 | 5.70 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pratika Rawal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-7 (Lara Goodall, 1.5) · 2-70 (Tazmin Brits, 15.0) · 3-89 (Miané Smit, 18.5) · 4-159 (Nondumiso Shangase, 29.5) · 5-188 (Sinalo Jafta, 35.1) · 6-260 (Annerie Dercksen, 45.1) · 7-311 (Chloe Tryon, 49.1)
Recorded target: 338 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 32/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 46/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 54/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 60/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 70/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 73/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 77/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 85/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 89/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 94/3 |
| 21 | 8 | 102/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 106/3 |
| 23 | 10 | 116/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 122/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 130/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 137/3 |
| 27 | 11 | 148/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 150/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 155/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 161/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 165/4 |
| 32 | 8 | 173/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 181/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 185/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 188/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 192/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 193/5 |
| 38 | 10 | 203/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 206/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 210/5 |
| 41 | 13 | 223/5 |
| 42 | 10 | 233/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 237/5 |
| 44 | 19 | 256/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 260/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 265/6 |
| 47 | 17 | 282/6 |
| 48 | 17 | 299/6 |
| 49 | 12 | 311/6 |
| 50 | 3 | 314/7 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.