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Pakistan Tri-Nation Series · 2024/25 · Men
12 Feb 2025 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 28%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Wiaan Mulder6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Wiaan Mulder | 41 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 146.43 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamlbw · Wiaan Mulder4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wiaan Mulder | 23 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 121.05 |
 Saud Shakeelcaught · Wiaan Mulder · Corbin Bosch2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wiaan Mulder · b Corbin Bosch | 15 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 93.75 |
 Mohammad Rizwannot out9 fours · 3 sixes |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 122* |
| 128 |
| 9 |
| 3 |
| 95.31 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Kyle Verreynne · Lungi Ngidi 16 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Lungi Ngidi | 134 | 103 | 16 | 2 | 130.10 |
|---|
| Tayyab Tahirnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 74 | 1 | 8.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 70 | 1 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder1 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 79 | 2 | 7.90 | 4 | 1 |
| Tabraiz Shamsi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 5.89 | 2 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Senuran Muthusamy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-57 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 6.1) · 2-87 (Saud Shakeel, 9.4) · 3-91 (Fakhar Zaman, 10.4) · 4-351 (Salman Ali Agha, 48.5)
Recorded target: 353 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 39/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 45/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 56/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 64/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 72/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 10 | 13 | 91/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 91/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 96/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 102/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 109/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 114/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 116/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 119/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 126/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 132/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 138/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 143/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 149/3 |
| 24 | 10 | 159/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 163/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 168/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 171/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 175/3 |
| 29 | 9 | 184/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 192/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 198/3 |
| 32 | 9 | 207/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 213/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 220/3 |
| 35 | 12 | 232/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 243/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 246/3 |
| 38 | 12 | 258/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 264/3 |
| 40 | 7 | 271/3 |
| 41 | 9 | 280/3 |
| 42 | 3 | 283/3 |
| 43 | 14 | 297/3 |
| 44 | 8 | 305/3 |
| 45 | 16 | 321/3 |
| 46 | 7 | 328/3 |
| 47 | 9 | 337/3 |
| 48 | 6 | 343/3 |
| 49 | 12 | 355/4 |
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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