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Pakistan Tri-Nation Series · 2024/25 · Men
12 Feb 2025 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 28%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Temba Bavumarun out · Saud Shakeel · Mohammad Hasnain13 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Saud Shakeel | 82 | 96 | 13 | 0 | 85.42 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Salman Ali Agha · Shaheen Afridi 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Shaheen Afridi | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 122.22 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Salman Ali Agha · Khushdil Shah 10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Khushdil Shah | 83 | 84 | 10 | 1 | 98.81 |
| Heinrich Klaasencaught · Shaheen Afridi · Naseem Shah 11 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Naseem Shah | 87 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 155.36 |
 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Saud Shakeel · b Shaheen Afridi |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Kyle Verreynnenot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 44* | 32 | 3 | 1 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 9 | 1 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 66 | 2 | 6.60 | 2 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 1 | 6.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 6.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Hasnain0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 72 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 5.57 | 0 | 0 |
1-51 (Tony de Zorzi, 8.0) · 2-170 (Temba Bavuma, 28.5) · 3-238 (Matthew Breetzke, 38.1) · 4-241 (Wiaan Mulder, 39.3) · 5-319 (Heinrich Klaasen, 47.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 41/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 51/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 59/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 64/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 66/1 |
| 12 | 11 | 77/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 86/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 92/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 98/1 |
| 16 | 8 | 106/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 109/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 115/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 122/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 128/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 136/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 140/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 144/1 |
| 24 | 7 | 151/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 154/1 |
| 26 | 6 | 160/1 |
| 27 | 5 | 165/1 |
| 28 | 4 | 169/1 |
| 29 | 1 | 170/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 174/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 176/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 181/2 |
| 33 | 5 | 186/2 |
| 34 | 16 | 202/2 |
| 35 | 8 | 210/2 |
| 36 | 13 | 223/2 |
| 37 | 2 | 225/2 |
| 38 | 13 | 238/2 |
| 39 | 3 | 241/3 |
| 40 | 1 | 242/4 |
| 41 | 10 | 252/4 |
| 42 | 9 | 261/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 265/4 |
| 44 | 11 | 276/4 |
| 45 | 10 | 286/4 |
| 46 | 20 | 306/4 |
| 47 | 12 | 318/4 |
| 48 | 8 | 326/5 |
| 49 | 7 | 333/5 |
| 50 | 19 | 352/5 |
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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