IndonesiaversusPhilippines

7 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 45 runs

Indonesia20.0 overs160/5 Philippines19.0 overs115/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Philippines more likely to win

28%Indonesia72%Philippines

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Philippines rate stronger than Indonesia (1,429 vs 1,287 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Philippines won 7 and Indonesia won 3
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 25%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Philippines is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Philippines: 0% to 78%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.5: RM Koda to HER Tyler, HER Tyler out. Indonesia up from 53% to 64%.
2nd inns 3.4: DJ Hawoe to AS Samra, AS Samra out. Indonesia up from 73% to 83%.
2nd inns 5.6: DJ Hawoe to N Tanner, N Tanner out. Indonesia up from 85% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia160/5 Philippines115/10

Innings 2

Philippines

115/1019.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Philippines batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
AS Samracaught · Ahmad Ramdoni · Danilson Hawoe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmad Ramdoni · b Danilson Hawoe	6	11	0	0	54.55
Henry Tylercaught and bowled · RM Koda 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b RM Koda	0	2	0	0	0.00
M Podoskycaught · F Banunaek · Anjar Tadarus 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · F Banunaek · b Anjar Tadarus	26	39	2	0	66.67
N Tannercaught · Ahmad Ramdoni · Danilson Hawoe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmad Ramdoni · b Danilson Hawoe	4	7	0	0	57.14
J Tuffincaught · Ketut Artawan · Gede Priandana 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ketut Artawan · b Gede Priandana	4	5	0	0	80.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
RM Koda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50
Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	9	2	3.00
Gede Priandana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50
F Banunaek0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25
Ketut Artawan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00
Anjar Tadarus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	2	7.50
S Kharvi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	1	4/1
3	1	5/1
4	2	7/2
5	4	11/2
6	6	17/3
7	5	22/3
8	5	27/3
9	3	30/4
10	4	34/4
11	7	41/4
12	13	54/4
13	7	61/5
14	13	74/5
15	8	82/6
16	16	98/7
17	7	105/7
18	4	109/9
19	6	115/10

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