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Photo: Krish Dulal
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Nepal Women's T20I Tri-Series · 2024/25 · Women
2 Feb 2025 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 61%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 42%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samjhana Khadkabowled · Caroline de Lange 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Caroline de Lange | 23 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 92.00 |
| Mamta Chaudharystumped · Babette de Leede · Eva Lynch 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Babette de Leede · b Eva Lynch | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Puja Mahatobowled · I van der Woning 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b I van der Woning | 18 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| I Barmacaught · Sterre Kalis · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sterre Kalis · b Iris Zwilling | 30 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 93.75 |
 Kabita Joshilbw · Heather Siegers0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Heather Siegers |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 93.33 |
 Rubina Chhetrilbw · Heather Siegers0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Heather Siegers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Bindu Rawalbowled · Iris Zwilling0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Iris Zwilling | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Sita Rana Magarnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 6 | 2 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| AK Yadavstumped · Babette de Leede · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Babette de Leede · b Caroline de Lange | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| R Dhaminot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 6 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Eva Lynch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 5 wides · 3 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 5 | 3 |
| I van der Woning0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Heather Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Mamta Chaudhary, 5.5) · 2-34 (Samjhana Khadka, 6.2) · 3-71 (Puja Mahato, 12.3) · 4-100 (Kabita Joshi, 16.4) · 5-100 (Rubina Chhetri, 16.5) · 6-103 (Bindu Rawal, 17.3) · 7-104 (I Barma, 17.5) · 8-115 (AK Yadav, 19.2)
Recorded target: 141 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 16 | 21/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 41/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 53/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 60/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 66/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 72/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 82/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 88/3 |
| 16 | 10 | 98/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 103/5 |
| 18 | 3 | 106/7 |
| 19 | 8 | 114/7 |
| 20 | 11 | 125/8 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sita Rana Magar: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
