CanadaversusIreland

7 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Canada won by 12 runs

Canada20.0 overs137/7 Ireland20.0 overs125/7 Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, New York ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

31%Canada69%Ireland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Canada (1,551 vs 1,446 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 2 and Canada won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canada started on 28%; Canada batted first.

Canada’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Canada's chances ranged from 17% to 99% during the match (Ireland: 1% to 83%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.4: Saad Bin Zafar to HT Tector, HT Tector out. Canada up from 35% to 50%.
2nd inns 9.6: Saad Bin Zafar to L Tucker, L Tucker out. Canada up from 52% to 69%.
2nd inns 10.5: D Heyliger to C Campher, C Campher out. Canada up from 69% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.