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Photo: Gihan Jayaweera
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Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
22 Feb 2026 · T20
Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 82%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Jamie Overton · Jofra Archer 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Jofra Archer | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 112.50 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Jamie Overton · Jofra Archer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Jofra Archer | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught and bowled · Will Jacks 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Will Jacks | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Tom Banton · Will Jacks 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Will Jacks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Harry Brook · Will Jacks 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Will Jacks | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught and bowled · Liam Dawson 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Liam Dawson | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 118.18 |
|---|
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Tom Banton · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Adil Rashid | 30 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Dushan Hemanthahit wicket · Jamie Overton 0 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Jamie Overton | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameerabowled · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Liam Dawson | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshananot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Dilshan Madushankabowled · Adil Rashid 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.55 | 1 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Pathum Nissanka, 2.4) · 2-20 (Kusal Mendis, 3.3) · 3-20 (Pavan Rathnayake, 3.4) · 4-22 (Kamil Mishara, 4.5) · 5-34 (Dunith Wellalage, 5.5) · 6-52 (Kamindu Mendis, 8.4) · 7-69 (Dushan Hemantha, 12.0) · 8-82 (Dasun Shanaka, 14.2) · 9-94 (Dushmantha Chameera, 16.0) · 10-95 (Dilshan Madushanka, 16.4)
Recorded target: 147 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 21/3 |
| 5 | 5 | 26/4 |
| 6 | 8 | 34/5 |
| 7 | 3 | 37/5 |
| 8 | 8 | 45/5 |
| 9 | 8 | 53/6 |
| 10 | 3 | 56/6 |
| 11 | 8 | 64/6 |
| 12 | 5 | 69/7 |
| 13 | 4 | 73/7 |
| 14 | 8 | 81/7 |
| 15 | 5 | 86/8 |
| 16 | 8 | 94/9 |
| 17 | 1 | 95/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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