EnglandversusSri Lanka

22 Feb 2026 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 51 runs

England20.0 overs146/9 Sri Lanka16.4 overs95/10 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

83%England17%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,763 vs 1,588 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 10 and Sri Lanka won 0
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 82%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

England's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 43%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: JC Archer to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. England up from 57% to 69%.
2nd inns 3.3: WG Jacks to BKG Mendis, BKG Mendis out. England up from 67% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.4: WG Jacks to P Rathnayake, P Rathnayake out. England up from 78% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England146/9 Sri Lanka95/10

Innings 1

England

146/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltcaught · Dushan Hemantha · Dunith Wellalage 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Dushan Hemantha · b Dunith Wellalage	62	40	6	2	155.00
Jos Buttlerlbw · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Dunith Wellalage	7	14	0	0	50.00
Jacob Bethellcaught · Dilshan Madushanka · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dilshan Madushanka · b Mahesh Theekshana	3	4	0	0	75.00
Tom Bantonrun out · Dasun Shanaka · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Dasun Shanaka	6	7	0	0	85.71

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0
Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0
Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	2
Dushan Hemantha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	0
Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	9	13/0
3	3	16/0
4	7	23/1
5	9	32/1
6	5	37/2
7	8	45/2
8	4	49/3
9	10	59/3
10	9	68/4
11	9	77/4
12	6	83/4
13	11	94/4
14	11	105/5
15	1	106/6
16	8	114/6
17	10	124/6
18	2	126/7
19	9	135/9
20	11	146/9

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