ThailandversusMalaysia

14 Feb 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 99 runs

Thailand20.0 overs169/7 Malaysia20.0 overs70/8 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

91%Thailand9%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Malaysia (1,605 vs 1,353 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 6 and Malaysia won 0
Thailand are playing at home in Thailand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 91%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 12%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Nur Dania Syuhada to N Chantam, N Chantam out. Malaysia up from 7% to 9%.
3.1: Nur Arianna Natsya to Arrikan Phuengkho, Arrikan Phuengkho out. Malaysia up from 9% to 12%.
4.6: Nur Dania Syuhada to N Chaiwai, four by N Chaiwai. Thailand up from 88% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand169/7 Malaysia70/8

Innings 1

Thailand

169/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Natthakan Chantamcaught · Nur Arianna Natsya · Nur Dania Syuhada 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nur Arianna Natsya · b Nur Dania Syuhada	10	12	1	0	83.33
Arrikan Phuengkhocaught · Amalin Sorfina · Nur Arianna Natsya 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amalin Sorfina · b Nur Arianna Natsya	4	3	1	0	133.33
Nannapat Koncharoenkaistumped · Aina Najwa · Nur Arianna Natsya 12 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Aina Najwa · b Nur Arianna Natsya	73	45	12	0	162.22
Naruemol Chaiwaicaught · Nur Dania Syuhada · Mahirah Ismail5 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Nur Dania Syuhada0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0	0
Nur Arianna Natsya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	0	0
Mahirah Ismail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	0	0
Ainna Hamizah Hashim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	0	0
Suabika Manivannan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	1	1
Mas Elysa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	2	0
Amalin Sorfina0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	7	14/0
3	4	18/1
4	7	25/2
5	4	29/2
6	7	36/2
7	12	48/2
8	7	55/2
9	5	60/2
10	5	65/2
11	8	73/2
12	14	87/2
13	8	95/2
14	13	108/2
15	13	121/2
16	10	131/3
17	9	140/4
18	3	143/4
19	9	152/5
20	17	169/7

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