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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
31 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 62%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waseem Muhammadcaught · Timm van der Gugten · Paul van Meekeren 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Timm van der Gugten · b Paul van Meekeren | 19 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 146.15 |
| Adeeb Usmaninot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 81* | 93 | 3 | 2 | 87.10 |
| Muhammad Shahdadcaught and bowled · Bas de Leede 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Bas de Leede | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
| Rahul Chopracaught · Shariz Ahmad · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shariz Ahmad · b Aryan Dutt | 11 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 42.31 |
| Akshdeep Nathlbw · Bas de Leede 5 fours · 4 sixes | lbw · b Bas de Leede | 99 | 88 | 5 | 4 | 112.50 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 1% to 78% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 22% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Aryan Dutt · b Colin Ackermann |
| 28 |
| 52 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 53.85 |
| Awais Ali Shahnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 6.22 | 0 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 4.89 | 1 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 3.90 | 2 | 0 |
| Daniel Doram0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 1 |
 Colin Ackermann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Waseem Muhammad, 2.4) · 2-58 (Muhammad Shahdad, 9.2) · 3-87 (Rahul Chopra, 16.5) · 4-165 (Sohaib Khan, 32.2) · 5-258 (Akshdeep Nath, 48.1)
Recorded target: 264 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 50/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 54/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 57/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 58/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 61/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 66/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 67/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 69/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 72/2 |
| 16 | 11 | 83/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 87/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 96/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 102/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 102/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 107/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 115/3 |
| 24 | 9 | 124/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 128/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 132/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 136/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 140/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 141/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 150/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 153/3 |
| 32 | 11 | 164/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 167/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 171/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 172/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 175/4 |
| 37 | 13 | 188/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 191/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 194/4 |
| 40 | 9 | 203/4 |
| 41 | 10 | 213/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 217/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 223/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 232/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 236/4 |
| 46 | 9 | 245/4 |
| 47 | 8 | 253/4 |
| 48 | 5 | 258/4 |
| 49 | 8 | 266/5 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
