OtagoversusCanterbury

7 Jan 2025 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Otago won by 15 runs

Otago20.0 overs150/5 Canterbury20.0 overs135/8 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Otago started on 52%; Otago batted first.

Otago’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Otago's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Canterbury: 0% to 51%).

Biggest swings

3.4: S Pandey to SW Bates, SW Bates out. Canterbury up from 40% to 48%.
2nd inns 0.6: EJ Black to J Dean, J Dean out. Otago up from 70% to 78%.
2nd inns 1.3: HNK Jensen to M Penna, M Penna out. Otago up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.