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South Africa tour of West Indies · 2024 · Men
26 May 2024 · T20
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 28%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (West Indies: 69% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Quinton de Kock · Gerald Coetzee 2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Quinton de Kock · b Gerald Coetzee | 44 | 28 | 2 | 4 | 157.14 |
| Johnson Charlescaught · Matthew Breetzke · Nqaba Peter 9 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Nqaba Peter | 69 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 265.38 |
 Kyle Mayersnot out0 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 36* | 23 | 0 | 4 | 156.52 |
| Alick Athanazenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|
| Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 12.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 12.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 13.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Kruger0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Reeza Hendricks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 10.24 | 1 | 0 |
1-92 (Johnson Charles, 6.4) · 2-130 (Brandon King, 10.5)
Recorded target: 164 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 26/0 |
| 3 | 23 | 49/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 58/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 70/0 |
| 6 | 13 | 83/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 93/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 101/1 |
| 9 | 17 | 118/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 128/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 130/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 138/2 |
| 13 | 12 | 150/2 |
| 14 | 15 | 165/2 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Mayers: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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