Kolkata Knight RidersversusLucknow Super Giants

5 May 2024 · T20

Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kolkata Knight Riders won by 98 runs

Kolkata Knight Riders20.0 overs235/6 Lucknow Super Giants16.1 overs137/10 Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kolkata Knight Riders started on 44%; Kolkata Knight Riders batted first.

Kolkata Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Lucknow Super Giants is the rest

Kolkata Knight Riders's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Lucknow Super Giants: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Mohsin Khan to PD Salt, six by PD Salt. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 50% to 56%.
4.2: Naveen-ul-Haq to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 20% to 28%.
2nd inns 1.6: MA Starc to AA Kulkarni, AA Kulkarni out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 86% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.