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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
11 Oct 2026 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 17%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelcaught · Adeeb Usmani · Khuzaima Tanveer 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adeeb Usmani · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 25 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Monank Patelbowled · Muhammad Arfan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Arfan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Shehan Jayasuriyabowled · Muhammad Arfan 8 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Arfan | 83 | 95 | 8 | 1 | 87.37 |
| Sanjay Krishnamurthibowled · Basil Hameed 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Basil Hameed | 28 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 77.78 |
| Milind Kumarbowled · Muhammad Arfan 2 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Arfan | 27 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 117.39 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (United States of America: 73% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 14* |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 66.67 |
| Hasan Khannot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 10 | 1 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khuzaima Tanveer1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Muhammad Arfan0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 3.80 | 9 | 0 |
| Awais Ali Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.4 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 9.53 | 1 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Akshdeep Nath0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 3.43 | 2 | 0 |
| Muhammad Shahdad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sohaib Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Monank Patel, 1.2) · 2-75 (Smit Patel, 16.2) · 3-140 (Sanjay Krishnamurthi, 27.3) · 4-184 (Milind Kumar, 33.1) · 5-189 (Shehan Jayasuriya, 35.4)
Recorded target: 214 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 27/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 11 | 13 | 51/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 59/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 63/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 71/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 75/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 79/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 81/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 85/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 92/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 100/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 107/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 112/2 |
| 25 | 11 | 123/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 130/2 |
| 27 | 8 | 138/2 |
| 28 | 9 | 147/3 |
| 29 | 9 | 156/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 160/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 166/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 169/3 |
| 33 | 15 | 184/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 185/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 188/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 192/5 |
| 37 | 10 | 202/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 205/5 |
| 39 | 9 | 214/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
