Saudi ArabiaversusMaldives

12 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 98 runs

Saudi Arabia20.0 overs186/6 Maldives20.0 overs88/8 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

85%Saudi Arabia15%Maldives

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Saudi Arabia rate stronger than Maldives (1,489 vs 1,274 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Saudi Arabia won 3 and Maldives won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Saudi Arabia started on 84%; Saudi Arabia batted first.

Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning (%) · Maldives is the rest

Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (Maldives: 0% to 15%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Mohamed Ishmath to Faisal Khan, four by Faisal Khan. Saudi Arabia up from 85% to 87%.
1.5: Umar Adam to Faisal Khan, four by Faisal Khan. Saudi Arabia up from 92% to 94%.
16.2: Ibrahim Hassan to Manan Ali, four by Manan Ali. Saudi Arabia up from 91% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Saudi Arabia186/6 Maldives88/8

Innings 2

Maldives

88/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Maldives batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Azyan Farhathcaught and bowled · Hisham Sheikh 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Hisham Sheikh	44	50	5	0	88.00
Umar Adamcaught · Manan Ali · Usman Najeeb 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Manan Ali · b Usman Najeeb	0	2	0	0	0.00
Ismail Alicaught · Manan Ali · Usman Najeeb 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Manan Ali · b Usman Najeeb	0	2	0	0	0.00
KTK Rodrigorun out · Shahzaib · Shahzaib 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Shahzaib	1	5	0	0	20.00
Hassan Rasheedcaught · Kashif Siddique · Imran Yousaf 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kashif Siddique · b Imran Yousaf	7	10	1	0	70.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Shahzaib0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	0	3.00	1	0
Usman Najeeb0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	0	15	2	7.50	2	2
Zain Ul Abidin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	0	3.33	0	0
Imran Yousaf1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	2	2.75	0	0
Usman Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	0	0
Waqar Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	0	0
Waji Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	0	2.50	0	0
Hisham Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	2	3.67	0	0
Faisal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	4	5/2
3	2	7/3
4	12	19/3
5	7	26/3
6	6	32/3
7	0	32/5
8	3	35/5
9	5	40/5
10	4	44/5
11	4	48/5
12	10	58/5
13	2	60/5
14	3	63/5
15	9	72/5
16	3	75/5
17	1	76/6
18	2	78/6
19	1	79/7
20	9	88/8

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