BhutanversusBahrain

13 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 4 wickets

Bhutan20.0 overs102/10 Bahrain19.2 overs105/6 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

8%Bhutan92%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Bhutan (1,699 vs 1,331 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 4 and Bhutan won 0
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 7%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 1% to 14% during the match (Bahrain: 86% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.5: Namgay Thinley to Sohail Ahmed, Fiaz Ahmed out. Bhutan up from 5% to 13%.
2nd inns 16.5: J Singye to Imran Anwar, Imran Anwar out. Bhutan up from 5% to 10%.
2nd inns 17.6: RM Dorji to Ali Dawood, four by Ali Dawood. Bahrain up from 89% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan102/10 Bahrain105/6

Innings 1

Bhutan

102/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Namgay Thinleyrun out · Sohail Ahmed · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Sohail Ahmed	2	2	0	0	100.00
R Limbucaught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · Imran Khan (5) 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · b Imran Khan (5)	0	8	0	0	0.00
Tshering Tashicaught · Imran Anwar · Asif Shaikh 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Imran Anwar · b Asif Shaikh	17	24	1	1	70.83
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjicaught · Sohail Ahmed · Asif Javed 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sohail Ahmed · b Asif Javed	18	14	2	1	128.57
J Singyecaught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · Ali Dawood 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · b Ali Dawood	18	29	1	0	62.07

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ali Dawood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	4	3.25	0
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Imran Anwar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	2
Asif Javed0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	2
Asif Shaikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	0
Asif Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	5	0	2.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	3	6/1
3	5	11/1
4	1	12/2
5	7	19/2
6	9	28/2
7	10	38/2
8	8	46/3
9	5	51/5
10	4	55/5
11	3	58/5
12	4	62/5
13	3	65/5
14	3	68/5
15	6	74/5
16	4	78/5
17	8	86/5
18	4	90/8
19	9	99/8
20	3	102/10

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