MalaysiaversusBahrain

13 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 126 runs

Malaysia20.0 overs188/3 Bahrain17.0 overs62/10 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

85%Malaysia15%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Bahrain (1,500 vs 1,288 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 1 and Bahrain won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 83%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 84% to 100% during the match (Bahrain: 0% to 16%).

Biggest swings

1.2: P Shetty to Wan Julia, four by Wan Julia. Malaysia up from 85% to 87%.
1.5: P Shetty to Wan Julia, 3 runs to Wan Julia. Malaysia up from 86% to 90%.
3.1: P Shetty to Wan Julia, Wan Julia out. Bahrain up from 11% to 14%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia188/3 Bahrain62/10

Innings 2

Bahrain

62/1017.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
TI Gajanayakebowled · Nur Arianna Natsya 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nur Arianna Natsya	9	13	2	0	69.23
Poorvaja Jagdeeshabowled · Aisya Eleesa 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Aisya Eleesa	3	12	0	0	25.00
Abeera Warislbw · Nur Arianna Natsya 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nur Arianna Natsya	0	2	0	0	0.00
Deepika Rasangikanot out 7 fours · 0 sixes	not out	43*	50	7	0	86.00
I Suhuncaught · Nur Arianna Natsya · Aisya Eleesa 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nur Arianna Natsya · b Aisya Eleesa	0	5	0	0	0.00
Nishma Pereira

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ainna Hamizah Hashim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	0	3.67	0	0
Nur Arianna Natsya2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	15	2	3.75	2	0
Aisya Eleesa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	2	3.50	1	0
Mahirah Ismail1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	5	2.75	0	0
Dhanusri Muhunan0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	0	4/0
3	5	9/0
4	0	9/2
5	2	11/2
6	6	17/2
7	7	24/3
8	10	34/3
9	1	35/4
10	5	40/4
11	4	44/4
12	1	45/5
13	2	47/5
14	0	47/9
15	1	48/9
16	5	53/9
17	9	62/10

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