PortugalversusNorway

8 Apr 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Portugal won by 83 runs

Portugal20.0 overs129/9 Norway15.0 overs46/10 Santarem Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Portugal more likely to win

73%Portugal27%Norway

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Portugal rate stronger than Norway (1,584 vs 1,499 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Portugal won 3 and Norway won 1
Portugal are playing at home in Portugal

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Portugal started on 73%; Portugal batted first.

Portugal’s chance of winning (%) · Norway is the rest

Portugal's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Norway: 0% to 81%).

Biggest swings

6.1: M Shahbaz Butt to J Martins, J Martins out. Norway up from 42% to 56%.
7.6: D Abeyrathna to C Potgieter, C Potgieter out. Norway up from 54% to 71%.
2nd inns 3.1: Sirajullah Khadim to D Abeyrathna, D Abeyrathna out. Portugal up from 50% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Portugal129/9 Norway46/10

Innings 2

Norway

46/1015.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Norway batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Khizer Ahmedbowled · U Shantu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b U Shantu	4	7	0	0	57.14
D Abeyrathnabowled · Sirajullah Khadim 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sirajullah Khadim	6	10	0	0	60.00
Chaudhary Akramcaught · C Nunes · H Khuttan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Nunes · b H Khuttan	1	4	0	0	25.00
Tafseer Alibowled · Sirajullah Khadim 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sirajullah Khadim	0	5	0	0	0.00
Sher Sahakcaught · J Martins · Sirajullah Khadim 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Martins · b Sirajullah Khadim	5

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
U Shantu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	1	2.50	0
Sirajullah Khadim1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	3	3.00	0
H Khuttan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	2	3.00	0
Edward Fleming0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	1	3.33	0
C Greenshields0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	0	3.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	5	9/0
3	1	10/1
4	0	10/3
5	2	12/4
6	6	18/5
7	2	20/6
8	2	22/6
9	4	26/6
10	3	29/7
11	4	33/7
12	4	37/8
13	3	40/9
14	3	43/9
15	3	46/10

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