BahrainversusBhutan

11 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 35 runs

Bahrain20.0 overs160/4 Bhutan20.0 overs125/9 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

90%Bahrain10%Bhutan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Bhutan (1,687 vs 1,342 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 2 and Bhutan won 0
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 89%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Bhutan is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 89% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 11%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: Imran Anwar to Namgay Thinley, Namgay Thinley out. Bahrain up from 90% to 94%.
2nd inns 2.2: Ali Dawood to R Limbu, R Limbu out. Bahrain up from 93% to 96%.
2nd inns 15.1: Ali Dawood to T Jamtsho, T Jamtsho out. Bahrain up from 93% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain160/4 Bhutan125/9

Innings 2

Bhutan

125/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Namgay Thinleycaught and bowled · Imran Anwar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Imran Anwar	3	4	0	0	75.00
R Limbucaught · P Kurup · Ali Dawood 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · P Kurup · b Ali Dawood	5	8	1	0	62.50
Tshering Tashicaught · Asif Ali · Ali Dawood 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Asif Ali · b Ali Dawood	38	37	4	1	102.70
J Singyecaught · Abdul Majeed · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Abdul Majeed · b Ali Dawood	2	4	0	0	50.00
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjicaught · Naveena Shetty · Ahmer Bin Nasir 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Naveena Shetty · b Ahmer Bin Nasir	37	34	4	0	108.82

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ali Dawood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	7	4.75	2
Imran Anwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	6	1	3.00	0
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0
Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	0	6.00	0
Asif Shaikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	0
Ahmer Bin Nasir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	1	8.50	0
Asif Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	1
Naveena Shetty0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	2	5/1
3	6	11/3
4	4	15/3
5	9	24/3
6	6	30/3
7	6	36/3
8	2	38/3
9	2	40/3
10	3	43/3
11	5	48/3
12	13	61/3
13	9	70/3
14	14	84/4
15	15	99/4
16	3	102/7
17	8	110/7
18	7	117/9
19	3	120/9
20	5	125/9

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