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Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men
23 Jan 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Auckland started on 52%; Auckland batted first.
Auckland's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 23 Jan 2025, Auckland played Otago at Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland. Recorded result: Auckland won by 69 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.