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Zimbabwe Women tour of Ireland · 2025 · Women
26 Jul 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 57%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiedza Dhururubowled · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Orla Prendergast | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 7.69 |
| Kelis Ndhlovucaught · Sarah Forbes · Arlene Kelly 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Forbes · b Arlene Kelly | 21 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 61.76 |
| Loren Tshumacaught · Amy Hunter · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b Orla Prendergast | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Chipo Mugeribowled · Arlene Kelly 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arlene Kelly | 48 | 65 | 5 | 0 | 73.85 |
| B Bizacaught · Amy Hunter · LA McBride 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b LA McBride | 27 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 71.05 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Laura Delany · b LA McBride |
| 13 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 72.22 |
| R Pasipanodyanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 32* | 71 | 2 | 0 | 45.07 |
|---|
| L Mabherocaught · CE Coulter Reilly · Jane Maguire 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CE Coulter Reilly · b Jane Maguire | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 29.41 |
|---|
| Nomvelo Sibandabowled · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cara Murray | 12 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 63.16 |
|---|
| K Chigoracaught · CE Coulter Reilly · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CE Coulter Reilly · b Cara Murray | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| T Makushacaught · Orla Prendergast · Jane Maguire 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Jane Maguire | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 17 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast4 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 2.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 3.49 | 1 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 2.83 | 2 | 0 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 4.67 | 6 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 5.89 | 0 | 0 |
| LA McBride0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 3.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Leah Paul0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 2 | 1 |
1-15 (Chiedza Dhururu, 4.5) · 2-17 (Loren Tshuma, 6.2) · 3-34 (Kelis Ndhlovu, 9.4) · 4-102 (B Biza, 22.0) · 5-125 (Modester Mupachikwa, 27.5) · 6-133 (Chipo Mugeri, 31.2) · 7-141 (L Mabhero, 35.0) · 8-176 (Nomvelo Sibanda, 43.4) · 9-186 (K Chigora, 47.2) · 10-191 (T Makusha, 48.1)
Recorded target: 289 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 21/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 31/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 34/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 38/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 46/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 55/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 63/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 64/3 |
| 17 | 13 | 77/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 79/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 85/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 90/3 |
| 21 | 9 | 99/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 102/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 104/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 110/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 115/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 118/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 122/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 126/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 127/5 |
| 30 | 2 | 129/5 |
| 31 | 3 | 132/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 134/6 |
| 33 | 5 | 139/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 140/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 141/7 |
| 36 | 4 | 145/7 |
| 37 | 3 | 148/7 |
| 38 | 6 | 154/7 |
| 39 | 7 | 161/7 |
| 40 | 6 | 167/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 170/7 |
| 42 | 2 | 172/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 172/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 178/8 |
| 45 | 1 | 179/8 |
| 46 | 3 | 182/8 |
| 47 | 2 | 184/8 |
| 48 | 7 | 191/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 191/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.