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Men's T20 Asia Cup · 2025 · Men
12 Sept 2025 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 73%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aamir Kaleemlbw · Saim Ayub 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Saim Ayub | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 118.18 |
| Jatinder Singhbowled · Saim Ayub 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saim Ayub | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Hammad Mirzacaught · Salman Ali Agha · Sufyan Moqeem 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Sufyan Moqeem | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 117.39 |
| Mohammad Nadeemcaught · Abrar Ahmed · Sufyan Moqeem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abrar Ahmed · b Sufyan Moqeem | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Sufyan Mehmoodcaught · Hassan Nawaz · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hassan Nawaz · b Mohammad Nawaz | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| run out · Shaheen Afridi |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Zikria Islamcaught · Mohammad Haris · Fahim Ashraf 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Haris · b Fahim Ashraf | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shah Faisalbowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Shakeel Ahmedcaught · Shaheen Afridi · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Abrar Ahmed | 10 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 43.48 |
|---|
| Hassnain Shahbowled · Fahim Ashraf 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fahim Ashraf | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Samay Shrivastavanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 3.27 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sufyan Moqeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-2 (Jatinder Singh, 1.1) · 2-24 (Aamir Kaleem, 3.1) · 3-41 (Mohammad Nadeem, 6.3) · 4-42 (Sufyan Mehmood, 7.2) · 5-49 (Vinayak Shukla, 8.3) · 6-49 (Hammad Mirza, 8.5) · 7-50 (Zikria Islam, 10.3) · 8-50 (Shah Faisal, 11.1) · 9-51 (Hassnain Shah, 12.1) · 10-67 (Shakeel Ahmed, 16.4)
Recorded target: 161 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 17 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 27/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 32/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 40/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 47/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 49/6 |
| 10 | 0 | 49/6 |
| 11 | 1 | 50/7 |
| 12 | 1 | 51/8 |
| 13 | 5 | 56/9 |
| 14 | 1 | 57/9 |
| 15 | 1 | 58/9 |
| 16 | 3 | 61/9 |
| 17 | 6 | 67/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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