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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
9 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 50%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hasini Pereracaught · Annerie Dercksen · Chloe Tryon5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Chloe Tryon | 30 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 115.38 |
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Lara Goodall · Chloe Tryon 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lara Goodall · b Chloe Tryon | 24 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 58.54 |
 Harshitha Madavicaught · Chloe Tryon · Seshnie Naidu3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chloe Tryon · b Seshnie Naidu | 33 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 86.84 |
 Chamari Atapattucaught · Annerie Dercksen · Ayabonga Khaka3 fours · 3 sixes | caught |
South Africa's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 52 |
| 57 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 91.23 |
 Nilakshi de Silvabowled · Ayabonga Khaka1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayabonga Khaka | 14 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Manudi Nanayakkaracaught · Lara Goodall · Miané Smit 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lara Goodall · b Miané Smit | 13 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 59.09 |
|---|
 Anushka Sanjeewaninot out4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 43* | 32 | 4 | 1 | 134.38 |
|---|
| Dewmi Vihangacaught · Nadine de Klerk · Chloe Tryon 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Chloe Tryon | 16 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Sugandika Kumaricaught · Nadine de Klerk · Chloe Tryon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Chloe Tryon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Malki Madaracaught · Sinalo Jafta · Chloe Tryon 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Chloe Tryon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Inoshi Priyadharshanirun out · Sinalo Jafta · Annerie Dercksen 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sinalo Jafta | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 7.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.35 | 4 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 34 | 5 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Seshnie Naidu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Miané Smit0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 4.38 | 4 | 0 |
1-52 (Hasini Perera, 9.2) · 2-68 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 13.2) · 3-124 (Harshitha Madavi, 25.1) · 4-160 (Chamari Atapattu, 29.3) · 5-171 (Nilakshi de Silva, 32.0) · 6-191 (Manudi Nanayakkara, 36.1) · 7-227 (Dewmi Vihanga, 41.1) · 8-227 (Sugandika Kumari, 41.2) · 9-227 (Malki Madara, 41.3) · 10-239 (Inoshi Priyadharshani, 42.5)
Recorded target: 316 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 45/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 51/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 60/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 68/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 69/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 70/2 |
| 16 | 10 | 80/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 82/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 91/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 96/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 103/2 |
| 22 | 9 | 112/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 117/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 120/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 124/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 129/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 135/3 |
| 28 | 18 | 153/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 158/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 161/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 164/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 171/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 173/5 |
| 34 | 9 | 182/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 183/5 |
| 36 | 8 | 191/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 193/6 |
| 38 | 6 | 199/6 |
| 39 | 12 | 211/6 |
| 40 | 8 | 219/6 |
| 41 | 8 | 227/6 |
| 42 | 0 | 227/9 |
| 43 | 12 | 239/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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