**Old Trafford**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

LancashireversusNorthamptonshire

19 Jul 2024 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 4 wickets

Lancashire20.1 overs201/9 Northamptonshire18.4 overs203/6 Old Trafford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lancashire started on 58%; Lancashire batted first.

Lancashire’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Lancashire's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (Northamptonshire: 19% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: CJ White to PD Salt, PD Salt out. Northamptonshire up from 43% to 55%.
4.5: CJ White to KK Jennings, KK Jennings out. Northamptonshire up from 40% to 51%.
2nd inns 7.5: LWP Wells to R Vasconcelos, R Vasconcelos out. Lancashire up from 21% to 32%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.