IndonesiaversusFiji

10 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 42 runs

Indonesia20.0 overs143/6 Fiji19.3 overs101/10 Albert Park 2, Suva ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Indonesia more likely to win

70%Indonesia30%Fiji

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Indonesia rate stronger than Fiji (1,505 vs 1,362 on our results rating)
Fiji are playing at home in Fiji
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 1 and Fiji won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 68%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Fiji is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (Fiji: 0% to 46%).

Biggest swings

1.4: I Waqavakatoga to D Wulandari, D Wulandari out. Fiji up from 29% to 35%.
1.5: I Waqavakatoga to Emily Sirs, Emily Sirs out. Fiji up from 35% to 42%.
8.4: AK Gonerara to M Corazon, six by M Corazon. Indonesia up from 68% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia143/6 Fiji101/10

Innings 2

Fiji

101/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Fiji batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Lomanirun out · NKF Rada Rani, DAL Paramitha · DAL Paramitha 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · NKF Rada Rani, DAL Paramitha	4	9	0	0	44.44
S Vunilbw · DAL Paramitha 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b DAL Paramitha	1	2	0	0	50.00
S Kijianacaught and bowled · DAL Paramitha 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b DAL Paramitha	5	4	1	0	125.00
Tabatha Savillelbw · NMP Suwandewi 2 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b NMP Suwandewi	33	23	2	1	143.48
I Waqavakatogabowled · NK Ariani 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NK Ariani	3	16	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
DAL Paramitha0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	7
NK Ariani1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	1	2.75	2
NW Sariani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	24	1	8.00	2
NLKWR Dewi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	0	18	1	5.14	2
NMP Suwandewi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	2	6.33	1
SAN Maypriani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	4	8/1
3	5	13/3
4	3	16/3
5	4	20/3
6	0	20/4
7	5	25/4
8	4	29/4
9	13	42/4
10	7	49/4
11	8	57/5
12	3	60/5
13	5	65/5
14	4	69/5
15	6	75/6
16	6	81/7
17	9	90/7
18	4	94/8
19	6	100/9
20	1	101/10

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