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Photo: Ruth Sharville
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Ireland Women tour of England · 2026 · Women
6 Sept 2026 · ODI
New Road, Worcester · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 88%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Tectorbowled · Matilda Corteen-Coleman 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matilda Corteen-Coleman | 29 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 49.15 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · Lauren Filer 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · b Lauren Filer | 16 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 94.12 |
| Amy Hunterstumped · Alice Capsey · Mady Villiers 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alice Capsey · b Mady Villiers | 39 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 67.24 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Maia Bouchier · Mady Villiers 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maia Bouchier · b Mady Villiers | 24 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
| Rebecca Stokellstumped · Alice Capsey · Ryana MacDonald-Gay 0 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Alice Capsey · b Ryana MacDonald-Gay | 14 | 20 | 0 | 1 |
England's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 12%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 70.00 |
| Leah Paulbowled · Lauren Filer 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Filer | 22 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 70.97 |
|---|
| Louise Littlebowled · Matilda Corteen-Coleman 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Matilda Corteen-Coleman | 14 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 82.35 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellycaught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · Charlie Dean 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryana MacDonald-Gay · b Charlie Dean | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Cara Murraynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| LA McBridebowled · Mady Villiers 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mady Villiers | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| KJ McCartneybowled · Lauren Filer 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Filer | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lauren Filer0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.2 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 3.24 | 3 | 1 |
| Ryana MacDonald-Gay0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.75 | 3 | 0 |
 Danielle Gibson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Matilda Corteen-Coleman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 3.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Mady Villiers0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 4.13 | 1 | 0 |
1-24 (Gaby Lewis, 4.5) · 2-80 (A Tector, 19.4) · 3-107 (Amy Hunter, 27.3) · 4-127 (Rebecca Stokell, 32.3) · 5-133 (Orla Prendergast, 34.0) · 6-167 (Louise Little, 40.3) · 7-171 (Arlene Kelly, 41.5) · 8-171 (Leah Paul, 42.1) · 9-175 (LA McBride, 43.4) · 10-177 (KJ McCartney, 44.2)
Recorded target: 292 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 55/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 59/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 64/1 |
| 17 | 7 | 71/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 74/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 77/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 81/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 83/2 |
| 22 | 9 | 92/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 94/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 102/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 105/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 107/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 109/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 114/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 117/3 |
| 32 | 10 | 127/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 129/4 |
| 34 | 4 | 133/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 137/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 142/5 |
| 37 | 9 | 151/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 156/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 160/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 165/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 168/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 171/7 |
| 43 | 2 | 173/8 |
| 44 | 2 | 175/9 |
| 45 | 2 | 177/10 |
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Gibson: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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