BangladeshversusAustralia

14 Oct 2026 · ODI

Allan Border Field, Brisbane · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 8 wickets

Bangladesh49.5 overs172/10 Australia22.4 overs175/2 Allan Border Field, Brisbane ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

4%Bangladesh96%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,929 vs 1,383 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 7 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 7 and Bangladesh won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 3%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 4% during the match (Australia: 96% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: ML Schutt to Murshida Khatun, Murshida Khatun out. Australia up from 96% to 98%.
6.3: ML Schutt to Sharmin Sultana, Sharmin Sultana out. Australia up from 98% to 99%.

Bangladesh172/10 Australia175/2

Innings 2

Australia

175/222.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Georgia Volllbw · Sultana Khatun 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sultana Khatun	11	6	2	0	183.33
Beth Mooneybowled · Disha Biswas 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Disha Biswas	21	14	1	1	150.00
Ellyse Perrynot out 8 fours · 0 sixes	not out	65*	64	8	0	101.56
Annabel Sutherlandnot out 12 fours · 0 sixes	not out

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Habiba Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.4	0	44	0	7.76
Sultana Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	32	1	10.67
Disha Biswas1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	1	40	1	8.00
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	20	0	6.67
Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	0	4.50
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	8	13/1
3	6	19/1
4	15	34/1
5	4	38/1
6	0	38/2
7	5	43/2
8	9	52/2
9	11	63/2
10	11	74/2
11	2	76/2
12	4	80/2
13	10	90/2
14	7	97/2
15	8	105/2
16	4	109/2
17	6	115/2
18	7	122/2
19	11	133/2
20	7	140/2
21	9	149/2
22	13	162/2
23	13	175/2

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